A leaked German study has analyzed how "peak oil" might change the global economy. The study is a product of the Future Analysis department of the Bundeswehr Transformation Centre, a German military think tank. The team of authors, led by Lt Col Thomas Will, uses sometimes-dramatic language to depict the consequences of an irreversible depletion of raw materials. It warns of shifts in the global balance of power and of the formation of new relationships based on interdependency.
The scenarios outlined by the Bundeswehr Transformation Centre are drastic. Even more explosive, politically, are recommendations to the government that the energy experts have put forward based on these scenarios. They argue that "states dependent on oil imports" will be forced to "show more pragmatism toward oil-producing states in their foreign policy." Political priorities will have to be somewhat subordinated, they claim, to the overriding concern of securing energy supplies.
Germany would have to be more flexible in relation toward Russia's foreign policy objectives. The relationship with Russia is of fundamental importance for German access to oil and gas, the study says. "For Germany, this involves a balancing act between stable and privileged relations with Russia and the sensitivities of (Germany's) eastern neighbors." For Germany to guarantee its energy security, it should be accommodating in relation to Moscow's foreign policy objectives.